basis trades is fragmenting basis compression

Useful frameworks survive longer than seasonal slogans.

Historically, stretches where basis trades leads without support from stablecoin minting invite sharper reversals.

Put beside current chatter on “Suspicious prediction market activity seen before election poll release: NYT,” the incentive problem looks clearer.

Stay close to what users and balance sheets are actually doing.

Cycles rhyme, but the plumbing underneath keeps changing.

Ignoring venture funding because US session flows looks exciting is how late-cycle mistakes compound.

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